Somewhere between the big economic headlines, the election and a playoff run, our real estate market seems to be taking a bit of a turn though not sure who is noticing YET.
For whatever reason, our inventory pushed up hard at the start of the year, but now new listings are coming to market at a slower pace than expected seasonally. According to CREB, After the fifth consecutive monthly benchmark price decline in Calgary, the number of new home listings eased to 3,064 units in April, a decrease of 18 per cent over the previous year. The interesting part starts happening when you slice and dice numbers to look at location and price point.
For example. There are currently 222 active detached homes under $500,000 in SE Calgary (Zone D). Sound like a lot? Not much really especially when 190 such homes sold in the last 30 days. That is only 1.2 months of inventory.
If you are looking at a higher price point the world looks different. There are 153 active detached homes on market in SE Calgary right now. 20 such homes have sold in the last 30 days. Here we see 7.65 months of inventory.
A big number I personally watch is the ratio of new listing/sale. It is a strong indicator of what is happening in the market outside of general sales numbers. We have been slowly moving from a New Listings/Sale ratio in the 40% range to 50% to now in the mid 60’s. The trend indicates we are moving back towards a balanced market (and even seller’s market in some pockets). Where our inventory was 100% higher than last year it is now 46% higher when looking at the total Calgary Residential Numbers for April 2015.
This weekend one of my listings went under contract, another sold firm yesterday and I just listing another. The cycle continues. So if you are waiting for a bottom….. work with someone who ensures you have the information to decide for yourself where that magic mark may be.
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