On January 20 I attended the CREB Annual Forecast Breakfast and Tradeshow. Along with the main forecast event I also attended discussions of the Economic Panel, Expert Panel on Condo Connoisseurs, Legal Panel as well as a session on the Green Homes Market.
To sum it up, 2010 is forecast to see a balanced market. To buyers and sellers, this means you will have to review trends in your specific markets, price right and stay informed.
What numbers will make a big difference in the coming year:
1. Lending rates. Every lender I know has been sending me regular emails saying their indicators show rates should be increasing now. The Bank of Canada has publically stated they will hold current rates thru June. The rates will go up this year. When and how much? It depends who you ask. We will have to wait and see in the coming months.
As rates increase, it will have some impact. The important thing to remember is that prime lending rates are currently at emergency levels, and to see them increase is in many ways a good sign. It means the economy has recovered enough to go back to historically low rates rather than emergency rates. (If you are a buyer you might not see it that way though.)
2. Supply numbers. 2008 and 2009 were made more challenging by an oversupply of new homes on the market as well as resale homes. The surge in the last two quarters of 2009 absorbed the oversupply so managing supply in 2010 (especially of new home) will help shape 2010.
3. Demand. Labour market numbers and net migration numbers to Calgary will determine who can afford to buy and who is moving to Calgary in need of housing.
4. Overall predictions by CREB indicate a 6.3% average price increase for single family homes in 2010 as well as a 4.3% average price increase for condos. This forecast would indicate a short term lag in the comparison of condos and single family homes. Low levels of start ups in the condo market will again drive prices up in the longer term particularly for the lower price market that cannot be supplied by single family homes.
These numbers are all great, but you need to speak to your Realtor about how they impact you and your market. If you want to know what they mean to you and your future plans, give me a call (403-850-2446) or drop me an email (firstname.lastname@example.org
) and I will be happy to help you.
As a side-note to all the numbers talk, I noticed an interesting trend both in the condo forum as well as the legal forum. During the boom, many folks were caught up in the buying rush and maybe didn’t read condo documents or property documents as carefully as they should have or have their homes inspected. Some properties that sold then would maybe not sell today. No matter the market, do your due diligence and make sure you protect yourself as a buyer. It isn’t a big deal if a condo has a shortfall if you are aware of it and have accounted for that in your purchase. It is a big deal if you find out two months later.
What are your thoughts on the market for 2010?